A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
